Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 4 November 2009

12h15 - R3

Daria Taglioni

Abstract
The unprecedented drop in international trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 has mostly been analysed at the macroeconomic or sectoral level. However, heterogeneous exporters in terms of productivity, size or external finance dependence should be hit differently by the crisis. This issue is examined here using data on monthly exports at the product and destination level for some 100,000 individual French exporters, up to 2009M4. We show that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters. Small and large firms are evenly affected when sectoral and geographical specialisation are controlled for. Lastly, firms (small and large) in sectors more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis. # This paper represents the views of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting those of Banque de France or the European Central Bank.

Brown Bag Lunch | Veronika Zavacka | Oct 7th

October 7, 2009

Brown Bag Lunch
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Wednesday 7 October 2009
12h15 - R3 (Rigot)

Veronika Zavacka

“Banking Crises and Exports: Lessons From the Past”

Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of banking crises on manufacturing exports exploiting the fact that sectors differ in their needs for external financing. Relying on data from 23 banking crises episodes involving both developed and developing countries during the period 1980-2000 the authors separate the impact of banking crises on export growth from that of other exogenous shocks (i.e. demand shocks). Their findings show that during a crisis the export of sectors more dependent on external finance grow significantly less than other sectors. However, this result holds only for sectors depending more heavily on banking finance as opposed to inter-firm finance. Furthermore, sectors characterized by higher degree of assets tangibility appear to be more resilient in the face of a banking crisis. The effect of the banking crises on exports is robust and additional to external demand shocks. The effect of the latter is independent and additional to that of a banking shock, and is particularly significant for sectors producing durable goods.

Macroeconomic commitment institutions

Brown Bag Lunch

Tuesday 26 May 2009
12h15 - R3

Sophia Gollwitzer

“Macroeconomic commitment institutions:
The role of the central bank and the budget process in shaping African economic policies”

Abstract: African countries continue to pursue largely diverging and often unsustainable macroeconomic policies that provide major obstacles to the envisioned regional and eventually continental integration. This study argues that institutions encouraging commitment to sound macroeconomic policy-making are what is currently needed most in African economies and that priority should be given to national institutional reforms before deepening the current integration process. Aiming at identifying the most urgent reforms, the study measures the quality of existing institutions in all member states of the African Union and analyzes their roles in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. Two indices are constructed, one on central bank independence (CBI), and one on the quality of budgetary institutions, both carefully designed to capture the specificities of the economic and political context in the region. In a cross-section analysis on the 53 countries the appropriate weights for the various index components are obtained. The aggregated CBI and budgetary indices are then used to asses the impact of the two types of institutions on inflation and public deficits respectively. While the cross-country analysis is expected to provide useful insights into the determinants of macroeconomic performance in African countries, the main contribution of this research is the compilation of two original databases.

The determinants of trade duration

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 6 May 2009

12h15 - R3

Ana Cristina Molina

“The determinants of trade duration”

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to explore the patterns of trade duration across regions and to identify its determinants. Using the semi-parametric Cox survival model, we evaluate the effects of country and product characteristics, as well as of trade cost variables on the duration of trade relationships from 96 countries from 1995 to 2006.

Race-to-the-bottom unilateralism

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 29 April 2009

12h15 - R3

Pierre-Louis Vézina

“Race-to-the-bottom unilateralism”

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical assessment of a tariff race-to-the-bottom. Using spatial econometrics methods, I show that political economy forces, by which more FDI generated employment stirs a competition for low tariffs, explain part of the unilateral trade liberalization that took place in Factory Asia during the last 20 years.

The varying price of risk in emerging countries’ stock markets

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 22 April 2009

12h15 - R3

Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

“The varying price of risk in emerging countries’ stock markets: The role of the foreign investor profiles”

Abstract: Does the composition of capital inflows affect the stability of the domestic financial system? This paper analyzes the role of the foreign investor types in the pricing of risk in the stock markets of emerging countries. Taking the APT approach to asset pricing and the dynamic common factor model as its empirical implementation, I extract the factors driving the returns of individual stocks in each emerging country. Having estimated the price of risk for each country, I then test whether it is affected by the sector breakdown of foreign equity holders, as measured by the IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey.

How effective are social programs during conflicts?

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 8 April 2009

12h15 - R3

Jean-Louis Arcand

“How effective are social programs during conflicts? Evidence from the Angolan civil war”

Abstract: How effective are social programs during conflicts? And how is the effectiveness of social programs affected by conflict intensity? In this paper, we consider the impact on child anthropometrics and household expenditures of the only major social program in Angola during the civil war. Our identification strategy is based on the political geography of program deployment. Our hypothesis is that one of the purposes of program implementation was to consolidate government political support in areas contested with UNITA, the main rebel group, as well to maintain the support of the population in areas to the rear of frontline communities. Based on a simple model of spatial competition, we show that the likelihood of treatment of a community should be increasing in the distance separating it from the government’s forward base, and decreasing in the distance to UNITA’s main base at the time. Using these exclusion restrictions to generate plausibly exogenous variation in treatment status, our linear instrumental variables estimates show that treatment at some point during the 1994-2000 period was associated with a 48.5% increase in household expenditures per adult equivalent, and a 0.359 increase in child height-for-age z−scores, in 2000. Results based on the local instrumental variables estimator show that each 1,000 additional deaths attributable to the civil war within a 20 km radius of the community shifts the marginal treatment effect associated with household income per adult equivalent up by 18.2%. This particular social fund was therefore associated with substantial benefits for treated communities, with these benefits being.

The macroeconomics smackdown

Brown Bag Lunch Hot Debate

Wednesday April 1st 2009
12h15 - R3

Tille vs. Wyplosz

“The macroeconomics smackdown”

In this special highly interactive BBL, Professors Tille and Wyplosz will debate on the usefulness of modern “state of the art” macroeconomics.

Limits of floats: The role of foreign currency liabilities and pass-through

Brown Bag Lunch

Thursday (exceptionally) 26 March 2009
12h15 - R3¨

Sebastian Weber and Pascal Towbin

“Limits of floats: The role of foreign currency liabilities and pass-through”

Abstract: The traditional argument in favor of flexible exchange rates emphasizes the expenditure switching effect and the stabilization of relative prices. The recent theoretical literature finds this argument weakened with high foreign currency debt or low exchange rate pass trough to import prices. We analyze the transmission of terms of trade shocks and world real interest rate shocks to the domestic economy under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes for a broad sample of countries in a Panel VAR and let the responses vary with foreign currency indebtedness and a pass-through measure. We find that flexible exchange rates do not insulate output better from real shocks if pass-through is low and can even amplify the output response if foreign indebtedness is high, making a peg potentially preferable.

Antitrust: Is there a national bias?

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 18 March 2009
12h15 - R3

Kornel Mahlstein

“Antitrust: Is there a national bias?”

The global crisis and remittances

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 11 March 2009

12h15 - R3

Salvatore Dell’Erba

Will present his work on

“The global crisis and remittances”

Abstract: "There is a lot of debate on how and to what extent the current global financial crisis (GFC) may affect remittances to developing countries. Current estimates rely on questionable assumptions and are not well suited to predict changes in inflows to individual developing countries following the crisis. By specifying a model of remittance outflows’ determinants, and by using past systemic banking crises, we identify the likely effects of the current GFC on total remittances to developing countries. On the basis of this and of a model of remittance inflows, we also predict the possible changes in inflows for a large subset of developing countries."

PLEASE DO NOT CITE BEFORE 15 MARCH 2009

Research vs Technical Seminars

Just a though about the difference between both seminars. Yesterday I was asked to explain the policy implications of my results. OK, in HEID we must have policy recommendations after our research, agree (not like the people from UCSD than think the opposite, as the candidate for Professor in Trade from there told us)... but not in the technical seminars. We are just explaining a technique and showing how to apply it, even if the application is unreal... agree?

A primer in spatial econometrics

"A primer in Spatial Econometrics, with an application of Bayesian heteroskedastic spatial autoregressive probit in FTA formation"

by Dany Jaimovich (HEID)

Wednesday 25 February 2009

12h15/13h30 - Room R3, Rigot