Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil

Brown Bag Lunch

Wednesday 4 November 2009

12h15 - R3

Daria Taglioni

Abstract
The unprecedented drop in international trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 has mostly been analysed at the macroeconomic or sectoral level. However, heterogeneous exporters in terms of productivity, size or external finance dependence should be hit differently by the crisis. This issue is examined here using data on monthly exports at the product and destination level for some 100,000 individual French exporters, up to 2009M4. We show that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters. Small and large firms are evenly affected when sectoral and geographical specialisation are controlled for. Lastly, firms (small and large) in sectors more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis. # This paper represents the views of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting those of Banque de France or the European Central Bank.

Brown Bag Lunch | Veronika Zavacka | Oct 7th

October 7, 2009

Brown Bag Lunch
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Wednesday 7 October 2009
12h15 - R3 (Rigot)

Veronika Zavacka

“Banking Crises and Exports: Lessons From the Past”

Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of banking crises on manufacturing exports exploiting the fact that sectors differ in their needs for external financing. Relying on data from 23 banking crises episodes involving both developed and developing countries during the period 1980-2000 the authors separate the impact of banking crises on export growth from that of other exogenous shocks (i.e. demand shocks). Their findings show that during a crisis the export of sectors more dependent on external finance grow significantly less than other sectors. However, this result holds only for sectors depending more heavily on banking finance as opposed to inter-firm finance. Furthermore, sectors characterized by higher degree of assets tangibility appear to be more resilient in the face of a banking crisis. The effect of the banking crises on exports is robust and additional to external demand shocks. The effect of the latter is independent and additional to that of a banking shock, and is particularly significant for sectors producing durable goods.